Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Fannock's thoughts on the weekend storm

By: Ryan Fannock
November 27, 2019

My current thoughts on the storm potentially starting this Sunday

I'm sitting here wondering what the heck is going on with the models. We're only headed into December and Model Mayhem has begun. I've done some research and found a pretty cool image depicting what "might" unfold later this weekend into Monday. The image is at the top of this article.

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So here's my thoughts RIGHT NOW...
First off, the storm is entering the West Coast near the Southern California border. I believe this is correct because the NAM currently shows this. In the past, a rule of thumb could be used with an event like this. A storm will exit the East Coast at the same latitude it entered the West Coast. With that being said, models currently have the storm exiting near the PA/MD border. When in reality, if that rule of thumb was correct, it SHOULD be exiting somewhere near South Carolina roughly. This is where you typically get the classic Miller B setup.

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A coastal low would typically form right off the Carolina Coast, move up the entire East Coast and blanket Eastern PA with SNOW. But instead, the models say this low transfer happens much further North. If that were the case, the coastal low wouldn't get it's act together until it's North of our area in PA. So the heavy snow would be from New York to Maine only. Do I believe this? I'm not completely sold on the solution where the low transfer happens near the PA/MD border. Even though it's not currently on any models, history is telling me to keep my mind open for a transfer occurring further down the Eastern Seaboard.

In conclusion, if you've been following my updates closely, you'd know modeling does NOT show heavy snow for areas South of Interstate 80 from this event. However, I do believe we will need to focus on short range guidance with this one. The NAM model is currently saying the storm enters near Southern California. So we need to keep our eyes peeled for a potential low transfer near the Carolina's. I know, that's pretty bold to say even though there's no modeling to back this up. But sometimes you gotta dig deeper than the models. Sometimes you gotta put past storms into play.
Miller B events are a common and classic Nor'easter setups for us. Let's see what happens. As always, stay tuned for my numerous updates over the coming days. This could get interesting...


Travel Alert: Lake Effect Snow in Western PA Thursday

By: Ryan Fannock
November 27, 2019

Gusty winds kick off the Lake Effect Snow Machine...

Traveling through Western PA for the Thanksgiving Holiday? You may encounter some lake effect snow. In the most persistent bands, upwards of 6" may fall. A general 1-3" snowfall is possible in areas highlighted in BLUE (refer to map at top of article). The 6" bulls eye looks to be in the lake snow belts of Southwestern PA. Nonetheless, even 1" of snow can cause tricky travel.  These lake effect snows can cause you to go from bare ground to a few inches of snow within a matter of miles. So just use extra caution and if you see it turning cloudier, be alert for squalls ahead. 

As for Eastern PA, a squall or two is possible, but no travel issues are likely...

Final Update: Thanksgiving Forecast

By: Ryan Fannock
November 27, 2019

Thanksgiving Day is looking wild regarding WIND....

After the near 60 degree temps we had on Tuesday, it's going to feel quite cold on Thanksgiving this year. Highs will top out in the low 40's, but factor in the wind and it will feel like lower 30's. Brr. I'm expecting a mix clouds and some sun with top wind gusts between 35-45mph. If you're deep frying a bird outside, please be very careful. The good news is that if you're traveling, you won't experience any weather issues regarding precipitation. The occasional flurry may fall from the sky though. 

As we head into the nighttime hours, you can expect temps to bottom out in the upper 20's. Under mostly cloudy skies, wind gusts won't be as gusty. But nonetheless, you'll still experience wind chills with gusts to 25mph at times. Wind chills will be in the upper teens during the highest gusts. 

With that said, I hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday!