Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Fannock's thoughts on the weekend storm

By: Ryan Fannock
November 27, 2019

My current thoughts on the storm potentially starting this Sunday

I'm sitting here wondering what the heck is going on with the models. We're only headed into December and Model Mayhem has begun. I've done some research and found a pretty cool image depicting what "might" unfold later this weekend into Monday. The image is at the top of this article.

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So here's my thoughts RIGHT NOW...
First off, the storm is entering the West Coast near the Southern California border. I believe this is correct because the NAM currently shows this. In the past, a rule of thumb could be used with an event like this. A storm will exit the East Coast at the same latitude it entered the West Coast. With that being said, models currently have the storm exiting near the PA/MD border. When in reality, if that rule of thumb was correct, it SHOULD be exiting somewhere near South Carolina roughly. This is where you typically get the classic Miller B setup.

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A coastal low would typically form right off the Carolina Coast, move up the entire East Coast and blanket Eastern PA with SNOW. But instead, the models say this low transfer happens much further North. If that were the case, the coastal low wouldn't get it's act together until it's North of our area in PA. So the heavy snow would be from New York to Maine only. Do I believe this? I'm not completely sold on the solution where the low transfer happens near the PA/MD border. Even though it's not currently on any models, history is telling me to keep my mind open for a transfer occurring further down the Eastern Seaboard.

In conclusion, if you've been following my updates closely, you'd know modeling does NOT show heavy snow for areas South of Interstate 80 from this event. However, I do believe we will need to focus on short range guidance with this one. The NAM model is currently saying the storm enters near Southern California. So we need to keep our eyes peeled for a potential low transfer near the Carolina's. I know, that's pretty bold to say even though there's no modeling to back this up. But sometimes you gotta dig deeper than the models. Sometimes you gotta put past storms into play.
Miller B events are a common and classic Nor'easter setups for us. Let's see what happens. As always, stay tuned for my numerous updates over the coming days. This could get interesting...