Friday, December 13, 2019

Wintry mix arrives Monday afternoon

By: Ryan Fannock
December 13, 2019

Wintry mix will arrive Monday afternoon...

Good morning! I've been tracking an event for Monday and the precipitation type has been wobbling on models. However, I do believe I have a good idea on what's to come with this storm. Earlier in the week I had questions about your weather apps saying 5-8" of snow. Well, those apps weren't wrong at the time. They were just showing a forecast based on what the models were saying. That's why I don't like to look at weather apps for long range weather info. Your forecast will wobble with every model run. In this article, I will show you timing of the precipitation, the type of precip, snow totals and ice totals. 

In the image below, you can see snow breaking out around 1:00PM Monday. These are just light snow showers which won't amount to much snow accumulation.

In the image below, you can see an icy mix over much of the viewing area. This image is slated for 7:00PM Monday evening. A changeover to ice will occur during the afternoon hours; before dark. If this stands, I could smell some early dismissals from school. Timing is key with this system...

In this last radar image, you can see some scattered plain rain showers. This image is slated for 1:00AM Tuesday morning. Temps are rising so ice would no longer be an issue past midnight...

Like I said earlier, the snow won't amount to much. A general coating to half inch is possible before the changeover to an icy mix.

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Finally, here's the projected ICE totals for PA. Over Schuylkill County, you can see a light glaze of ice which stays under a tenth of an inch. Small ice accretions, but still can cause tricky travel and icy sidewalks.

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