Sunday, December 1, 2019

Storm Update: Part Two on Monday

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By: Ryan Fannock
December 1, 2019

Now that Part 1 is winding down, I figured it's a good time to focus on Part 2. I've been holding off on posting a prediction because models simply did not agree with me. I kept saying from the very beginning that I did not believe the highest amounts should stay beyond the PA border. My gut kept telling me that PA would also score big on snow totals. Well, the models FINALLY are in line with my thinking. This storm is evolving into a pretty wild coastal storm. Once it gets it's act together, there's going to be some high snow amounts right here in Pennsylvania. In this article you're going to learn start time, end time, snow totals and wind speed. At the very end of the article, I will give you my snow map. It covers all of Eastern PA. I'll even break down, in text, different towns in Schuylkill County so I eliminate some of the "how much in my backyard" questions. 

There's different layers of the atmosphere that your snowflake needs to travel through. Right now, the 850mb temps are too warm to support snow. That's why we're seeing a wintry mix across much of the area today. The blue line shows you the difference between air below freezing and air above freezing up in the sky. The dot shows the location of many of you in the group. Under that dot, it's 2 degrees Celsius as of 7:30pm at this layer. The blue line is 0 degrees Celsius; area cold enough for snow. It will sag as the evening progresses. Areas near the NY/PA border will transition first since they are furthest North. Areas under the dot will see the transition anywhere between 10pm and 2am. Precipitation will be scattered in the beginning of Part 2. It will increase as we progress through the daylight hours on Monday.

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You may wake up Monday and see the snow has stopped. Before you start posting in capital letters the word BUST, please understand something. A lull may form as the storm is getting it's act together. Once it becomes a powerful coastal storm, the snow will kick into high gear. As of now, I'm not too confident on when the steady snow starts. Once it does, snow will last into the afternoon and taper off in the evening. A few dry periods are possible throughout the day. Gaps in the precipitation do like to form with coastal storms of this magnitude. When it is snowing, it may fall at rates of 1-2" per hour in the heaviest bands.

Along with the snow, we'll have WIND. I'm anticipating the wind to pick up during the afternoon hours on Monday. Wind gusts could reach 25mph at times. These winds will last into the night Monday and stick around through much of Tuesday. BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

My projected snow totals are listed on the map below. Notice how I outlined Schuylkill and Carbon counties. Below the image, I'm going to break down snow totals across a number of locations in Schuylkill County...

2 to 5 inches:
Pine Grove
Tower City
Valley View

5 to 10 inches:
Buck Run
Lake Wynonah
Summit Station
Mahanoy City
Schuylkill Haven
New Philadelphia
West Penn
Saint Clair
New Ringgold

10 to 18 inches: