Saturday, December 14, 2019

Possible outcome for Monday's event

By: Ryan Fannock
December 14, 2019

Weather Talk: Focus on the EURO

Good morning! If you're like me, you woke up wondering what the heck is going on with our next wintry event. After studying the various models, I figured it's a good time to pick apart the EURO model. It's been pretty consistent with printing out the same solution run after run. Does that mean it's going to be right? Well, that's the million dollar question. It's only Saturday, so there's plenty of time to work out a track and precipitation types. But I know there's other weather enthusiasts out there who enjoy reading about each model. So here ya go....

In each image you're going to see, I have my viewing area outlined. I know there's people in here from all different locations. However, the majority of you live in or around Schuylkill County.

You'll see multiple radar images as you scroll through this article. I'm going to time it all out for you as we go along...

First up, 7:00AM Monday morning. As you can see, it's not doing anything across the viewing area. So your travel to work and school WILL BE OK....

The next image below is slated for 1:00PM Monday afternoon. As you can see, there's moderate to heavy snow falling across the area. Thus, a start time would be after 7am and before 1pm. These model runs only go in 6 hour intervals. So until we get closer to the event, we can't really give a definitive time without short range guidance. I do want to point out that IF THIS MODEL IS CORRECT, schools WILL dismiss early.

Next image below shows you 7:00PM Monday evening. As you can see, the mix line is starting to creep into the viewing area. So any snow accumulations would be nearing an end as a changeover to ICE is starting...

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Next image below is stamped 1:00AM Tuesday morning. The storm is still going strong but it's a mix EVERYWHERE in the viewing area at this point. By mix I mean wet flakes, sleet and freezing rain. Yuck!

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The last radar image below is stamped for 7:00AM Tuesday morning. If this model were to be correct, some of the viewing area would still be under a wintry mix. So yes, school delays are likely based off this model run.

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The map below shows you ice accretion from the entire event. A general 0.25" to 0.5" is what the EURO prints out. Ice on top of snow would not be good for tree limbs and power lines...

I'm finishing off the article with projected snow totals from the EURO model. As you can see, a general 6" of snow would fall before the changeover. Do I believe these numbers? Hell no. As of now, I'm more worried about ice than snow totals. But if the EURO can give me 3 more runs like this between now and Sunday afternoon, I'll issue a snow map. Take this map with a grain of salt folks. Models are struggling this year and I'm iffy on putting all my marbles in one basket. So stay tuned as I keep you ahead of the storm!