Sunday, November 3, 2019

Update: Snow potential around the 8th

By: Ryan Fannock

9:00PM November 3, 2019


Earlier in the week, I mentioned the potential for snowfall between the 8th and 10th of November. That potential is starting to increase as we inch closer to those dates. All of the long range models have a storm, but the placement of the storm is different on each one. In this article, I'm going to show you the difference between the GFS (American model), CMC (Canadian model) and the Euro (European model). First up, the GFS....

The latest run, which is called the 18z run, shows the storm sliding to our South. As you can see in the image below, it's far enough South to be an all rain event for those states. It would leave PA with dry conditions. There's really not much to say about this run. I'm more focused on the CMC and EURO because I believe those models have a better handle on this storm.


Next up, the CMC...

This model has the storm starting out as a period of rain late on the 7th. Then it would change to snow during the overnight hours. It would snow all day on the 8th, but it would be a wet snow. So accumulations wouldn't be huge. It would end up leaving us with about 2-4" of snow before ending late on the 8th.

IMAGE: This model is labeled 12z Friday. That's in UTC time. So after the conversion, it's 7AM Friday our time. You can see the difference between rain and snow at this hour. The rain/snow line would move across the state as it got colder throughout the day on the 8th (if this model were to verify).

Last up, the Euro....

This model is very similar to the CMC. So if I was to put money on this storm right now, I'd go with a blend of the CMC and Euro. It starts as rain late on the 7th. Rain doesn't last too long on this model. As temps drop, rain quickly changes to snow. By mid-morning on the 8th, there's 2-4" of snow on the ground. Ending as snow showers during the evening on the 8th. 

IMAGE: At the top of the image, it says 00z Friday. This is in UTC time. So to convert it, we'd end up with 7pm our time (Thursday evening). I know, it sounds confusing. But as you can see, it has a rain/snow line across PA. That line will move across the state as it gets colder overnight (if this run was to verify).

As we get closer to the event (within 84 hours) of it occurring, I'll be able to consider the NAM (North American Model). However, at this time, that model doesn't go out to this time period.