Saturday, November 9, 2019

Fannock's First Call: Tuesday Event

By: Ryan Fannock

11:50PM 11/09/2019

I've been watching the models like a hawk lately over this Tuesday event. Several days ago it caught my eye on the Canadian model. It showed FEET of snow in our area and that idea has been thrown out the window. A lot of people have asked me, "What's the most accurate model?" I can never really give a good answer because the models all have their flaws. However, lately I've really liked the GFS (American model). The GFS was pretty good at sniffing out the past event we had. While other models said several inches of snow, the GFS was only showing a brief period of snow with no accumulation. That's exactly what happened, so right now, I'm banking on the GFS giving a solid idea for the next storm.

In the image below, I show you two different paths that this storm may take. In my honest opinion, I feel it's going to take Path #1. I could see the center of the storm sliding right over Pennsylvania; giving us a mixed bag of precipitation. For Schuylkill and surrounding counties, it really isn't a major event by any means. Areas closer to the PA/NY border may score big with this one. But for us, minimal impacts regarding snow totals. If the storm took Path #2, we would see an all snow event with nearly 10" of snow from this thing. But again, I'm leaning towards Path #1. 


If the storm takes Path #1, it should start as some rain showers in our area Monday evening. Then the main batch of precipitation moves through after midnight. It's one of those scenario's where we go from rain to sleet to snow. Once we officially changeover to snow, we could pick up a few inches in elevations. I'm thinking 1-3" in the highest terrain of the county while the lowest terrain is in the Coating to 1" range. I would be more concerned about ICY roads/sidewalks due to a flash freeze. I could see temps going from the 40's to 20's within about 30 minutes time. If temps drop like that, it could get a little tricky out there. Snow showers would end during the morning or early afternoon hours on Tuesday. 

As always, stay tuned as I keep you ahead of the storm!