Saturday, January 19, 2019

Fannock's Forecast - Saturday to Monday

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Saturday - 

Different predictions from different models:

GFS FV3: 3-5" SNOW. 0.1-0.2" ICE
RGEM: 3-4" SNOW. 0.1-0.25" ICE
12km NAM: 1-2” SNOW. 0.4-1" ICE
3km NAM: 2-5” SNOW. 0.1-0.7" ICE
HRRR- 3-6” SNOW. 0.05-0.4” ICE

Basically, 1-7" of SNOW depending on elevation. Lowest amounts in the absolute lowest terrain of Schuylkill County. Highest 7" amounts in the absolute highest terrain of the county. Total ice is anywhere from 0.05-1" depending on ELEVATION. Valleys see mainly PLAIN RAIN after changeover. Elevations go to mainly ICE and "score" the highest ice totals. 

So this is going to be anywhere from a minimal impact storm in lower terrain to a crippling ice storm in elevations. I truly am sorry for the constant change in forecast. However, I can only predict based on what the models print out. This is what the latest runs say. I will keep you updated throughout the storm to see how this all pans out. 

It's going to turn into a now-casting event soon. With that said, I'll be checking radar and 850mb temps to see when the changeover is going to occur. 850mb temps are temps way up in the sky. When warmer air moves in aloft, that's when mix starts to take place. Temps at the surface (ground) will be below freezing for most of us when the 850's warm up above 32. Once changeover takes place, it's going to get ugly. Especially in areas that see heavy ice accretions. 

SNOW: 3-6pm (West to East)
MIX TRANSITION: 9pm-12am (lower to higher terrain)
PLAIN RAIN: 12am to 2am (lower to higher terrain)

END TIME: After 8am Sunday

Saturday High: 32-37 across the county
Temps by 7pm: 28-33

Saturday Night: Storm details ABOVE. Temps by 12am: 28-33. Temps by 2am: 30-34. Temps by 6am: 35-37.

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Sunday: Plain rain and wintry mix early. Otherwise, dry the rest of the day. WINDY. Temps by 1pm: 23-28. Temps by 5pm: 15-20. Wind chills as low as -5 by 5pm as well.

Sunday Night: Decreasing clouds. Low: -7 to 0. Windy. Wind chills as low as 25-30 below zero at times. 

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Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs ranging from 5 to 11 degrees. Wind chills well below zero all day. By 4pm, we still have wind chills near -15 degrees. 

Monday Night: Mostly clear. Lows ranging from 3-6 degrees. WINDY. Wind chills near -10. 

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