Sunday, November 11, 2018

One, Two Punch for Schuylkill and surrounding counties

What an active November it has been thus far! The activity is going to continue as we work our way through the upcoming week. The models are actually in good agreement for once, so I figured it's time to post a little article on what I'm seeing.

First storm - Monday evening into Tuesday morning

We have so much agreement on this storm that it's almost scary. The GFS (American) and EURO (European) both show about 0.7-1" of RAIN from this storm. Winds in the afternoon will gust to 20mph at times. But it won't be as windy as we saw this past Saturday. Rain will move in AFTER 7pm Monday evening. Wrapping up between 7-10am Tuesday. 

Second storm - Thursday

The GFS and EURO have similar starting times. One says 11am, the other says 1pm. So as of now, we'll go with late morning or early afternoon for precip to start moving in. This storm will have everything but the kitchen since associated with it. It's going to start out as a wintry mix. Some areas may start as just snow, but others will see sleet. Maybe even some freezing rain drops. Both models are projecting ACCUMULATING SNOW. Somewhere on the lines of 1-5" depending on elevation. It's only Monday morning, so it's too early to set totals in stone. But if the models remain consistent, I'll have a snow map out Tuesday evening. 

Both models show a period of freezing rain Thursday evening as well. This will happen as warmer air filters in aloft, while it's still below freezing at the ground level. So we go from snow, sleet to freezing rain and we're going to finish this one off ABOVE freezing with plain rain. I know, that's a lot of info. But it's the first mixed bag of the season so I already know there's going to be a ton of accidents. Prepare your car now with emergency supplies for the Winter months. It is only mid-November, however, if this ice comes to fruition, it could get rough for at least a few hours Thursday evening. The plain rain transition will occur before midnight. Storm wraps up early Friday morning. 

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