Monday, September 3, 2018

3 Day Forecast Sept 4th to 6th


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 Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Some passing clouds during the afternoon/evening. A passing shower or storm is possible. HOT and HUMID. High: 90. Heat index: 93-98

 Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 70
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 Wednesday: Partly sunny. 30% chance of showers/storms. HOT and HUMID. High: 90. Heat index: 95-100

 Wednesday Night: Increasing clouds after midnight. Low: 72
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 Thursday: Partly sunny. HOT and HUMID. High: 90. Heat index: 97-102
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Bonus Forecast:

Friday, Saturday and Sunday will be cooler. Friday will be a transition day so temps will be in the upper 70's and lower 80's. However, Saturday and Sunday will be even COOLER with temps in the lower 70's and even some upper 60's in elevations. All 3 days will be mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Overall, not a good weekend headed our way. 

If you read my SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER OUTLOOK earlier, I did mention how we'd start to see BELOW normal temps this weekend. If you missed it, here's the link: CLICK HERE

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September-October Forecast. Snow? Humid?


The image above is valid for the last day of September. I'll discuss details about this image below after I give you my thoughts about the first half of September...

Now through September 20th:

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS

What does that mean exactly?

Right now, we're on day 1 of a 3-4 day heatwave. So these temps will help keep our "average" temperature well above normal. As we head towards the weekend, we'll actually see some below normal temps move in. But keep in mind, the temps near 90 earlier in the week are going to keep the "average" above normal. As we head into next week, I'm thinking temps will be near normal to slightly above. So with that said, I don't see another heatwave next week. 

The average to slightly above average temps will continue through roughly the 20th. After that, some changes are on the way. We'll start entering Fall Mode. There will be a transition period which leads us to the image I posted above. That's valid for 8am on September 30th. Temps in the 30's! So with that said, our low occurs much earlier than 8am. So We could be looking at mid 30's. First frost in the works? It's not looking like a freeze, so growing season could still continue into October if you just cover up your plants. 

October:

After a period of well below normal temps early, we should moderate to near normal temps beyond Week 1. I believe our first freeze occurs this month. But I'm thinking the 2nd half of the month. It's one of those situations where it's not exactly a pattern change. It's 3 days of normal temps, then 1 day of colder weather (freeze), then back up to normal. So as we head into Halloween, I do see things being right around normal. NO SNOW THIS YEAR UNTIL NOVEMBER!!

PRECIPITATION BOTH SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER:

ABOVE NORMAL

Hopefully the flooding rains are a thing of the past, but I do see more rainy days than normal in our future. Let's hope these tropical rains are just a part of Summer and don't tag along into Fall. But yes, above normal precip. 

I see the tropics are starting to get their act together. So "if" a tropical storm or hurricane decides to turn towards us, it's game on. It's truly impossible to know if a storm of that magnitude will hit us. Why? Because you can't predict into the future when exactly storms form. I can only track them in the 7-10 day future; not LONG RANGE. 

I don't know if there will be 1 hurricane or several hurricanes over the next couple months. But just keep in mind, if one does come towards us, the saturated ground will NOT be able to soak the precip. Fingers crossed for NO tropical systems because we DO NOT need any more flooding. 

Lastly, September WILL continue the several month stretch of ridiculously humid days. Even temps in the 70's will feel like upper 80's because of this damn humidity. Heading into October, humidity will be a thing of the past.

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