Tuesday, October 16, 2018

14 Day Outlook - Potential Nor'easter?

Based on the historical averages for Pottsville, we're going to be stuck in a stretch of below normal temperatures. But will we still see above normal rain? 

October 16th

Average High: 64
Average Low: 38

We don't typically have highs stuck in the lower 50's this time of year. Actually, it's not until November 12-14th that we usually have highs topping out around 55. So yes, it's going to be chilly over the next 14 days. 

The first freeze for many of you will occur Wednesday Night into Thursday morning. This will end the growing season in areas that dip below 32 degrees. We'll squeeze out another below freezing night into Friday morning. 

By the weekend, our next threat of rain moves in. It's only a 30% chance of showers on Saturday; no big deal. 

Sunday night, we'll experience even colder temps. As we wake up Monday morning, some locations may be in the 20's. 

Beyond Monday the 22nd, most days will top out in the 50's. A few upper 40 degree days are possible as well. Lows will generally be in the 30's and lower 40's. Precipitation will be BELOW normal. So yes, less rainy days than we've been seeing. 

First Nor'easter of Autumn is possible around the 26-29th. I've been tracking this for awhile now. As of today, modeling shows a storm riding up the coast; with the center of the storm moving over central PA. This would bring in warmer temps off the ocean. Instead of pulling down cold air from the north, we'll get air flowing out of the Southeast. This would make our highs top out in the 60's while it's raining.

After the storm pulls away, temps go back down in the 40's and 50's for highs.

There's about a 5% chance (at this time) for the storm to produce snow. We'd need the storm to go further off the coast; instead of over PA. This would give the opportunity for colder air to be sucked in from the north. Stay tuned for further updates as we get closer to this event. 

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