Sunday, August 12, 2018

CPC 8-14 Day Outlook + El Nino Talk = Wet through Winter?

The image above shows you probabilities of above and below normal temps across the entire United States in 6-10 days. CLICK IMAGE TO VIEW LARGER

The CPC (Climate Prediction Center) issues 8-14 Day Forecasts. Here's the latest information below:

Chances favor ABOVE NORMAL temperatures during this time period
Chances favor ABOVE NORMAL precipitation during this time period

The average high for Mahanoy City is about 77 degrees by August 20th. So with above normal temps anticipated, you can expect low to mid 80's. The CPC isn't expecting any "record" warmth during this time period.

The probability for precipitation in Mahanoy City on August 20th is about 32% according to So with above normal precipitation expected, you could see those numbers near 50-60% over the next 8-14 days. 

We just can't seem to break this WET pattern. 

Plus, the CPC is expecting us to enter an El Nino in the Fall. Right now things are ENSO Neutral which means neither a La Nina or El Nino are occurring. Without boring you of the scientific details, this basically means warmer temperatures are expected in the long term with frequent precipitation. So early indications are showing a warmer than normal Fall with above normal precip. Plus, if we fast forward things into Winter, warmer temps could mean more mixing events or even plain rain. 

Thus, less snow. 


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